Natixis Survey Pins AI and US Equities as Second-Half Market Drivers

The outlook, compiled from 33 market experts across Asia, North America, and Europe, highlights a distinct shift in investor sentiment. While recession fears have subsided significantly compared to last year, the market is navigating a complex landscape defined by energy volatility and resource constraints. Concentration risk remains a primary concern, as 85 percent of strategists note that market returns are being driven by a disproportionately small group of AI-focused companies.

Geopolitical tension remains a critical factor for the remainder of the year. With inflation concerns rising, 97 percent of surveyed strategists rank price volatility as a top risk, largely influenced by the precarious status of shipping lanes and energy costs. The defense sector has emerged as a resilient beneficiary of this climate, with seven in ten experts predicting sustained tailwinds. Meanwhile, traditional safe havens are being re-evaluated; nearly half of the strategists suggest that US Treasuries no longer offer the security they once provided, pointing instead toward investment-grade credit and infrastructure as more reliable alternatives.

Looking toward regional performance, the consensus heavily favors the United States. Forty-two percent of strategists expect US markets to outperform, fueled by the tech sector. In contrast, European sentiment has cooled, with investors there leaning toward a more balanced approach involving financials and defense. Although the rapid construction of energy-intensive AI data centers has prompted regulatory pushback—notably in New York—the prevailing view is that the structural shift toward AI will remain the dominant theme for institutional portfolios.