The holiday surge is set to outpace last year’s 3.5% growth rate, though retailers face a complex landscape. While in-store performance remains steady with a projected 2.5% rise, nonstore sales are expected to accelerate by 9%, accounting for 60% of total growth. Consumers are increasingly turning to AI platforms like ChatGPT and Google Gemini to navigate their purchases, with 24% of shoppers planning to start their journey on these tools.
US Holiday Retail Sales Poised to Crack $1 Trillion Milestone
US retail sales are projected to hit a record $1 trillion this holiday season, fueled by a 4.5% year-over-year increase. While the headline figure signals a robust shopping period, Bain & Company analysts warn that inflation accounts for more than half of this nominal growth, masking underlying consumer caution.
Financial headwinds remain significant. High gasoline prices, shifting tariff impacts, and credit card delinquency rates exceeding the ten-year average are weighing on household budgets. However, these pressures are partially offset by a $43 billion increase in tax refunds and a 23% year-over-year rise in the S&P 500, which bolsters spending among higher-income demographics. Aaron Cheris, global head of Bain’s retail practice, notes that success hinges on balancing aggressive promotions with AI-driven customer service to capture share in a price-sensitive market.
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